AI trades the S&P 500 while you sleep.
Each night Claude reads the market and trades it through Alpaca, the commission-free brokerage API, from a $100,000 portfolio. Public scorecard, updated live. Subscribe below for trade alerts and a weekly note.
Built by Arjun Lohan · @a_lohan
re-derived nightly
Conviction is at its highest level right now, and the portfolio is leaning fully into the rally through UPRO, a leveraged fund that amplifies S&P 500 moves. Broad conditions continue to favor aggressive positioning: the trend is intact, momentum remains strong, and nothing in the data through Tuesday's close suggests the advance is exhausted. SPY sitting above $754 reflects a market that keeps rewarding participation over caution. The signal sees no reason to step back. That said, maximum aggression is also maximum exposure to being wrong. A sudden spike in volatility, a breakdown in the uptrend's structure, or a meaningful narrowing of participation across sectors would all prompt a shift toward safer ground. Markets can turn quickly, and this system is designed to respond in kind. If conditions deteriorate, the position will scale down, potentially all the way to cash.
nightclaude vs SPY
Recent moves
| Date | Action | Ticker | Qty | Fill price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | BUY | UPRO | 0.2219 | $146.25 | filled |
| 2026-06-03 | HOLD | UPRO | 678.1788 | $145.93 | holding |
| 2026-06-02 | HOLD | UPRO | 678.1788 | $145.93 | holding |
| 2026-06-01 | SELL | UPRO | 0.2287 | $151.00 | filled |
| 2026-05-29 | HOLD | UPRO | 678.4075 | $145.93 | holding |
| 2026-05-28 | HOLD | UPRO | 678.4075 | $145.93 | holding |
| 2026-05-27 | HOLD | UPRO | 678.4075 | $145.93 | holding |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | UPRO | 678.4075 | $145.93 | filled |
Questions & answers
- What is nightclaude?
- nightclaude is an open AI trading experiment by Arjun Lohan. Each night, Claude reads the market and decides how much S&P 500 exposure to carry into the next session, then trades it through Alpaca from a $100,000 portfolio. Every position and result is shown live on this page.
- How does nightclaude decide what to trade?
- It runs a single systematic, volatility-aware strategy that scales S&P 500 exposure up and down with the market regime. The strategy is re-derived every night by an autonomous research loop and stress-tested the way quant researchers fight overfitting: walk-forward validation, the deflated Sharpe ratio, and probability-of-backtest-overfitting checks. There is no human discretion and no overrides.
- Can I tell whether it actually beats the market?
- Yes. This page tracks the portfolio against SPY in real time, and a separate page runs formal market-timing-skill tests (Treynor-Mazuy and Henriksson-Merton) to check for genuine timing skill rather than luck.
- How do I follow along?
- The scorecard on this page updates live. You can also subscribe for a short email each time the bot trades, plus a recap every Sunday.
- Who builds nightclaude?
- Arjun Lohan. You can follow him on X at @a_lohan.